Texas State Championships Predictions

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Work got busy the past couple of days so I won’t be dedicating a full post to the FPO before the tournament starts, so I’m going to incorporate here. Sai Ananda was able to take this event down in 2023, winning by three strokes over Kristin Tattar. Do I think there will be a repeat champion here? No. Do I think Kristin will get another win here this weekend? No. I like what Missy Gannon said in an interview with the Up Shot podcast where she mentioned that last year was a real wake up for the whole division. I think the FPO division is going to continue to make it hard on Kristin this year, and that continues here in Houston. I like Holyn Handley to win this weekend, beating out Kristin who will finish in second for the second straight year. Rounding out the podium, I like Ohn Scoggins to continue her hot streak with a third place finish.

On the MPO, I was able to dive pretty deep into the course, the changes and how things are shaping up for this year. Last year, Calvin won by five strokes, finishing the event with a 1073 average rating and a 67% birdie rate. Anthony Barela and Joel Freeman were the next top finishers, shooting 1059 average event ratings with a 61% and 56% birdie rate respectively. It certainly was competitive at the top after Calvin, with AB, Joel, James Proctor, Alden Harris, Niklas Antilla, Aaron Gossage, and Kyle Klein, all jumbled up within 6 strokes of each other at the top of the leaderboard.

The course at Brock Park has not changed much, with only Holes 1, 2, 6, and 12 changing by a handful of feet. Hole 11 played the hardest last year with .43 strokes above par, the highest by quite a bit compared to Hole 1 (second hardest) that scored .19 strokes above par. And there are a couple birdie friendly holes with Hole 15 (-.36), Hole 7 (-.31), Hole 14 (-.28), and Hole 16 (-.24), all scoring pretty well for the players last year with a thinner field. I’m expecting the scoring to be just as high, most likely breaking what Calvin shot last year. I think a -35 is going to get it done this weekend, just about averaging -12 a day.

When I look at this event last year and compare it to how the season has started, there are a bunch of names that stick out to me as potential picks to win this tournament. Ricky Wysocki, Calvin, Gossage, Niklas, AB, Kyle Klein, Gannon Buhr, and Adam Hammes are all on my radar. For the most part, some of this is obvious – Gannon, Niklas, and AB have all already won this year. Ricky, Calvin, and Kyle have been finished in the top 5 and top 10 for every event. Aaron Gossage, I just have a hunch that he’s playing better and finished well last year, that he is in the conversation. And then there is Adam Hammes. He’s finished 17th, 10th, and 14th in the three DGPT events to date. But his name is constantly at the top of the list for statistics like strokes gained tee to green and circle 1 in regulation. He was in the top 5 at WACO and in Austin, and was tied with Gannon with a 64% circle 1 in regulation in Austin. I think he’s bound to win or be at the top soon.

I’d pick Calvin, but with him not throwing forehands, I think that will have an effect on the outcome of this tournament. He only threw 8 last year at the event, but a couple were off the tee and a couple were in big par 4 upshot situations. I just think it will take away from his ability to be at the top of the game. I love Ricky’s chances because he tends to just play well at Texas States. But I really think this year is all about the younger guys, bringing disc golf into the next generation. In third, I like Gannon. He’s been too good this year and he’s just going to be a perennial contender at the top this whole year. Second, I like Adam Hammes. I don’t think this is the one he wins, but he makes a move. And winning this, I have to go with AB. He’s finished in the top 5 in each of the first three events and he shot great here in 2023. Give me AB with a dominant win. Enjoy!


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